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Awareness > Understanding > Recognition > Response

Being risk-informed, requires a constant reappraisal of capabilities and challenges. One of the main aims of scenario-building is to develop situational awareness and explore 'critical' uncertainties. An organisation cannot really decide how critical an uncertainty is until it first tackles the issue of deficient risk intelligence.  Dan Solomon

The Solomon Barnes Consultancy can create customised scenarios for clients to apply in their strategic planning processes, based on an independent, and up-to-date analysis of the enterprise or security risk landscape.

Delivered in a workshop setting, we work with client teams to build relevant scenarios, incorporating their assumptions & vulnerabilities, and draw the requisite conclusions from the process.

Commissioning a scenario-build is a unique way of engaging with intelligence & analysis of the future, and creating a relevant perspective for strategic decision-taking.


Why Use Scenarios

Scenarios enable managers to prepare a schedule of responses, and serve as roadmaps for setting future investment & priorities without dismissing certain risks on the basis of lack of awareness, or misunderstanding of interdependent dynamics.

Scenarios are specifically relevant to developing a shared appreciation of risks, particularly when mapping interdependencies, and their function within the larger organisation. This can serve a number of purposes, both in identifying sources of risk, and preparing for crisis response as well as constructing exercise scenarios that are more relevant

Drawing the appropriate conclusions from scenario exercises leads to a re-examination of priorities, and investment in processes & technology, which is likely to involve both security and business functions. Building a shared understanding of priorities is crucial to scenario-building because subsequent investment decisions will related to most future risks, and justify better investment decisions.


Benefits of A Scenario-Building Process

• More suited than any other approach for developing a better appreciation of converged threats, because it is now near-impossible to identify precisely how future threats will manifest themselves.

• Outcomes lead to decisions that effectively mitigate risk across several possible future threats or attacks.

• Scenarios illustrate several ways that one threat can evolve and develop into different plausible outcomes, that planners need to be able to cope with.

• Helps managers recognise when assumptions are being challenged by events, while exercises will develop the ability to respond appropriately.

• Creates awareness of how changes in underlying factors can change the way events unfold during an crisis, and better understand the relationship between different factors.

• Creates the recognition of vulnerabilities, and informs managers of where to short-list options for investment planning, and implications for the trade-offs they may need to consider.

• Identifies more avenues to mitigating converged risk than other ‘pure' domain approach.

• Accommodates both qualitative & quantitative inputs and reconsiders multiple views & priorities

SCENARIO BUILDING WORKSHOP PROCESS
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For more on scenario-building, download our Risk Brochure


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